Years at SKEMA Business School: 1
 


Laurent FERRARA

Globalisation
Paris



CV
Skills & Interests 
Research Skills
 Macroeconomics
Qualification 
Scholarly Academic
Academic Degrees 
HDR  Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne, France, 2007.
Ph.D.  University Paris North, 2000.
Work Experience 
Full Professor of Economics, SKEMA Business School (September, 2019 - Present), Paris, France.
Member of the Board of Directors, International Institute of Forecasters (May, 2012 - Present), Boston, Massachusetts.
Head of International Macro Division, Banque de France (January, 2014 - August, 2019), Paris, France.
Deputy Head of International Macro Division, Banque de France (October, 2010 - December, 2013), Paris, France.
Economist-Researcher, Banque de France (April, 2007 - September, 2010), Paris, France.
Adjunct Professor, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan (January, 2005 - December, 2007), Cachan, France.
Intellectual contributions
Articles in Journals 
FERRARA, L., & Marsilli, C. (2019).  Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor-augmented mixed-frequency approach.   World Economy, 42 (3), 846-875.
FERRARA, L., Chinn, M., & Giacomini, R. (2018).  Impact of uncertainty shocks on the global economy.   Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 209-211.
FERRARA, L., Charles, A., & Darné, O. (2018).  Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence.   Economic Inquiry, 33 (5), 662-679.
FERRARA, L., & Guérin, P. (in press, 2018).  What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks?   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33 (5), 662-679.
FERRARA, L., & Bellego, C. (2017).  Forecasting euro area recessions by combining financial information.   International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 7, 78-94.
FERRARA, L., Barhoumi, K., & Darné, O. (2016).  A world trade leading index.   Economics Letters, 146, 110-115.
FERRARA, L., Bec, F., & Bouabdallah, O. (2015).  Comparing the shapes of recoveries: France, the UK and the US.   Economic Modelling, 44, 327-335.
FERRARA, L., Marcellino, M., & Mogliani, M. (2015).  Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: the return of non-linearity?,.   International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 664-679.
FERRARA, L., Charles, A., Darné, O., & Diebolt, C. (2015).  A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy.   Journal of Financial Stability, 17, 3-9.
FERRARA, L., Chinn, M., & Mignon, V. (2014).  Explaining US Employment Growth after the Great Recession: The role of Output-Employment Non-linearities.   Journal of Macroeconomics, 42, 118-129.
FERRARA, L., Marsilli, C., & Ortega, J. (2014).  Forecasting growth during the Great Recession: is financial volatility the missing ingredient?,.   Economic Modelling, 36, 44-50.
FERRARA, L., & van Dijk, D. (in press, 2014).  Forecasting the business cycle.   International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (3), 517-519.
FERRARA, L., Bec, F., & Bouabdallah, O. (2014).  The way out of recessions: Evidence from a bounce-back augmented threshold regression.   International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (3), 539-549.
FERRARA, L., Barhoumi, K., & Darné, O. (2013).  Testing the number of factors: An empirical assessment for forecasting purposes.   Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75 (1), 64-79.
FERRARA, L., Billio, M., Guégan, D., & Mazzi, G.L. (2013).  Evaluation of regime-switching models for real-time business cycle analysis of the euro area.   Journal of Forecasting, 32 (7), 577-586.
FERRARA, L. (2013).  Comments on: Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates.   International Journal of Forecasting, 29, 751-753.
FERRARA, L., & Marsilli, C. (2013).  Financial variables as leading indicators of GDP growth: Evidence from a MIDAS approach during the Great Recession, Applied Economics Letters,.   Applied Economics Letters, 20 (3), 233-237.
FERRARA, L., Barhoumi, K., Darné, O., & Pluyaud, B. (2012).  Monthly GDP forecasting using bridge models: Comparison from the supply and demand sides for the French economy.   Bulletin of Economic Research, 64, 53-70.
FERRARA, L., & Bellego, C. (2012).  Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-probit approach,.   Economic Modelling, 29, 1793-1799.
FERRARA, L., Barhoumi, K., & Darné, O. (2012).  Une revue de la littérature des modèles à facteurs dynamiques.   Economie et Prévision, 199, 51-77.
FERRARA, L., & Darné, O. (2011).  Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy,.   Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 73 (3), 335-364.
FERRARA, L. (2010).  Les variables financières sont-elles utiles pour anticiper la croissance économique ? Quelques évidences économétriques,.   Revue Economique, 61 (3), 645-656.
FERRARA, L., Barhoumi, K., & Darné, O. (2010).  Are disaggregate data useful for forecasting French GDP with dynamic factor models ?   Journal of Forecasting, 29 (1-2), 132-144.
FERRARA, L., Guégan, D., & Rakotomarolahy, P. (2010).  Nowcasting Euro area GDP with ragged-edge data: A semi-parametric approach.   Journal of Forecasting, 29 (1-2), 186-199.
FERRARA, L. (2009).  Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone Euro.   Revue Economique, 60 (3), 703-712.
FERRARA, L., Adanero-Donderis, M., & Darné, O. (2009).  Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d'accélération pour l'économie française.   Economie et Prévision (189), 93-114.
FERRARA, L., Anas, J., Billio, M., & Mazzi, G. (2008).  A system for dating and detecting turning points in the euro area.   Manchester School, 76 (5), 549-577.
FERRARA, L., & Guégan, D. (2008).  Business surveys modelling with Seasonal-Cyclical Long Memory models.   Economics Bulletin, 3 (29), 1-10.
FERRARA, L. (2003).  A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy.   Economics Letters, 81 (3), 373-378.
FERRARA, L., & Guegan, D. (2001).  Forecasting with k-factor Gegenbauer processes: Theory and applications.   Journal of Forecasting, 20, 581-601.
Books, Monographs, Compilations, Manuals 
FERRARA, L., Charles, A., & Darné, O. (Ed.). (2020).  Prévision en Finance.  
FERRARA, L., Hernando, I., & Marconi, D. (2018).  International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis Springer.  
FERRARA, L., & Guégan, D. (2002).  Analyser les Séries Chronologiques avec S-Plus : une Approche Paramétrique, Collection Pratique de la Statistique Presses universitaires de Rennes.  
Chapters, Cases, Readings, Supplements 
FERRARA, L., & Mazzi, G.L. (2018). Parametric models for cyclical composite indicators. In G.L. Mazzi (ed.) (Ed.), Handbook of Cyclical Composite Indicators. European Union and United Nations. 
FERRARA, L., Anas, J., Billio, M., Carati, L., & Mazzi, G.L. (2017). Cyclical composite indicators detecting turning points. In G.L. Mazzi (ed.) (Ed.), Handbook of Cyclical Composite Indicators. European Union and United Nations. 
FERRARA, L., & Koopman, S.J. (2010). Common business and housing markets cycles in the euro area from a multivariate decomposition. In O. De Bandt, T. Knetsch, J. Peñalosa and F. Zollino (eds.) (Eds.), Housing Markets in Europe: A Macroeconomic Perspective. Springer. 
FERRARA, L., Alvares, L., Cabrero, A., Bulligan, G., & Stahl, H. (2010). Housing cycles in the major euro area countries. In O. De Bandt, T. Knetsch, J. Peñalosa and F. Zollino (eds.) (Eds.), Housing Markets in Europe: A Macroeconomic Perspective. Springer. 
FERRARA, L., & Vigna, O. (2010). Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play. In O. De Bandt, T. Knetsch, J. Peñalosa and F. Zollino (eds.) (Eds.), Housing Markets in Europe: A Macroeconomic Perspective. Springer. 
Conference Presentations 
FERRARA, L. (2019). Business Cycle Dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model.  Real-time data Workshop, Brussels, Belgium.
FERRARA, L. (2019). Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model,.  Conference on Forecasting at Central Banks, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
FERRARA, L. & SIMONI, A. (2019, September). When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage. Invited presentation at OECD Workshop on Time Series Methods, Paris, France.
FERRARA, L. & SIMONI, A. (2019, June). When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage.  International Symposium on Forecasting, Thessaloniki, Greece.
Other Research 
2020: FERRARA, L., La réalité américaine.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2020: FERRARA, L., Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2019: FERRARA, L., A non-Gaussian macro world, Blog Econbrowser.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2019: FERRARA, L., Identifying the German business cycle, Econbrowser blog.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2018: FERRARA, L., & Teuf, C., US monetary policy and international environment: A textual analysis, Blog BlocNoteEco, septembre.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2018: FERRARA, L., International Macro in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, Blog Econbrowser, septembre.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2018: FERRARA, L., Bussière, M., Chinn, M., & Heipertz, J., The new Fama puzzle, Blog VoxEU, July.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2018: FERRARA, L., Bussière, M., Juillard, M., & Siena, D., Macroeconomic impact of budget-neutral fiscal reforms, Blog BlocNoteEco, April.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2018: FERRARA, L., Uncertainty and business investment in the UK after the Brexit, Blog Econbrowser, May.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2017: FERRARA, L., One year after the Brexit, where the UK economy heading? Blog BlocNoteEco, July.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2017: FERRARA, L., Time-varying models for monetary policy and financial stability, Blog Econbrowser, June.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2017: FERRARA, L., Global growth : Optimism for 2017 ? Blog BlocNoteEco, Jan.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2016: FERRARA, L., Where is global growth heading ? Blog Econbrowser, May.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2015: FERRARA, L., Macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks, Blog Econbrowser, June.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
2013: FERRARA, L., & Mignon, V., Etats-Unis : la faiblesse de la reprise n'explique pas entièrement celle de l'emploi, Blog du CEPII.   [Basic or Discovery Scholarship]
Professional Service 
Board of Directors (Member)
2019:  International Institute of Forecasting (International).
Editor: Academic PRJ
2019:  International Journal of Forecasting (International).   Associate Editor